The Arctic Debrief: Russian Tu-95MSs and Su-30SMs violate Alaskan airspace

In this edition:

• Russian Tu-95MSs and Su-30SMs violate Alaskan airspace
• Work to begin on Canadian Surface combatant warships
• US sanctions target Russia's LNG exports through Arctic shipping

Latest Developments

Russian Tu-95MSs and Su-30SMs violate Alaskan airspace

On May 2, Two Tu-95MS strategic bombers and Two Su-30SM multirole fighter jets entered NORAD’s Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ) near Alaska.

In response, NORAD scrambled fighter jets to escort out the Russian aircraft. U.S. Airforce F-15s and Canadian Royal Airforce CF-18s participated in the confrontation.

Such incursions are not unprecedented but do not occur often. For example, two Russian TU-160 Blackjack bombers launched from Western Russia, flew over the Arctic and came just short of Canadian airspace in January 2020. The bombers are capable of carrying nuclear ordinance and the Canadian military was unaware of their presence until they were near the border.

This was one of the earlier incidents that raised concerns in North America. It highlighted the lack of early warning systems and surveillance in the Arctic. Canada is looking to invest in "over-the-horizon" radar to be able to avoid such incursions.

As for Russia, every time a similar event takes place state media is quick to use the news as propaganda. A popular narrative amongst the Russian population is that Alaska belongs to Russia and shall soon return to its "rightful owner." Russian violation of the U.S. airspace is often celebrated and welcomed by TV hosts and on social media.

Work to begin on Canadian Surface combatant warships

Construction is set to begin on Canada's modern warships sometime in the summer. Known as the Canadian Surface Combatant, the ship will be built using BAE Systems' Type 26 Frigate design. The project is estimated to cost around $80 billion.

The vessels are part of a federal procurement program that seeks to replace the Royal Canadian Navy's current fleet of Halifax-class frigates.

Completion of these ships is projected to take several decades. Meanwhile, funding has been allocated to extend the life of the Halifax ships, which entered service in the 1990s.

The surface combatant is set to be the leading vessel of the Canadian Navy. It will perform multiple roles and be capable of operating in any conditions, including the Arctic.

US sanctions target Russia's LNG exports through Arctic shipping

The U.S. government released an updated sanctions list on May 1 which included four companies involved in Arctic shipping. The affected companies and vessels include:

• Red Box Energy Services (based out of Singapore, with a subsidiary operating out of the Netherlands) and its two ships the 'Audax' and 'Pugnax;'
• Hong Kong-based CFU Shipping and its ship 'Nan Feng Zhi Xing' and 'Hunter Star' (which is allegedly currently delivering parts for the project);
• Russian construction Transstroy and three of its ships which delivered materials to the Arctic LNG 2 project; and
• Russian Eko Shipping and nine of its shipping vessels.

A significant part of Russia’s LNG exports come from the Arctic and are shipped through the Northern Sea Route. Much of the gas was delivered via pipelines and trucks, but those transport methods have been blocked since Russia invaded Ukraine.

The U.S. and its allies have taken efforts to cripple Russia's energy sector through sanctions since 2022. The sanctions did not affect Russia as its energy sector grew and brought in revenue.

That remained true until April 25, when Novatek announced that it halted production at its recently completed $25-billion Liquefied Natural Gas project, the Arctic LNG 2. The project had to stop LNG production because it could not find buyers and there were no ships to deliver the liquified gas.

This is because Western sanctions have warded off China and India from purchasing the gas while also targeting Russia's LNG ship fleet.

LNG is transported by specialized ships, which is the main way of distributing natural gas. Russia was in the process of purchasing several LNG vessels from South Korean companies but sanctions made that impossible. Ships were also under construction throughout Russian shipyards, but sanctions on technology imports either significantly slowed construction or halted it entirely.

Novatek is a Russian oil and gas company owned by Leonid Mikhelson, the fourth richest person in Russia and a close ally of Russian President Vladimir Putin. It is estimated that revenue from Russia's oil and gas industry makes up 34% of its economy.