The Arctic Debrief: New vessels join Russia's Northern Fleet

In this edition:

• New vessels join Russia's Northern Fleet
• NATO allies conduct Arctic training in Northern Finland
• Further trouble in the Northern Sea Route

Hello and welcome back to The Arctic Debrief!

Latest Developments

New vessels join Russia's Northern Fleet

In the past three weeks, Russia has added several new vessels to its Northern Fleet, including a new Yasen-M class submarine, an upgraded Soviet-era Delfin-class submarine, and a Grachonok class anti-saboteur boat.

The Yasen-M class nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarine, named Arkhangelsk, is the third Yasen class submarine to join the Northern Fleet.

Arkhangelsk is equipped with cruise missiles, anti-ship missiles, and anti-submarine missiles. The Yasen-M variant is capable of carrying Zircon hypersonic cruise missiles, although it has not yet been equipped with them. Both types of cruise missiles are capable of carrying nuclear warheads.

Russia intends to replace its Soviet-era fleet with this design, which features a 4th generation nuclear reactor capable of running for 25-30 years.

The Delfin-class nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarine, named K-117 Bryansk, was commissioned just before the collapse of the Soviet Union and was a hallmark of the Red Army's strategic submarine fleet. Bryansk has been upgraded to carry ballistic missiles with an operational range of 8,300 km, allowing it to threaten all NATO member states from the Arctic Ocean.

The P-475 Grachonok-class anti-saboteur boat, the fifth of its kind to join the Northern Fleet, is armed with machine guns, grenade launchers, and rocket grenade systems. Designed for anti-terrorism and anti-sabotage operations in northern waters, the vessel is equipped with advanced electronics, communication systems, and hydro-acoustic equipment for detecting underwater movement.

In addition to the three military ships, Rosatom launched a new nuclear icebreaker, named Yakutia, just before the end of 2024. The vessel will help clear shipping paths along the Northern Sea Route. Notably, it is the first icebreaker to be made up of mostly Russian-sourced parts, demonstrating Russia's capability to build these ships despite Western sanctions.

However, just a week prior, the construction of Rosatom's Rossiya icebreaker faced a major setback when the Ursa Major cargo ship sank in the Mediterranean while delivering reactor hatches needed for the ship's completion.

NATO allies conduct Arctic training in Northern Finland

Finnish soldiers are leading a Winter Combat Course in Northern Finland to train NATO allies in operating in Arctic conditions. The exercise aims to prepare soldiers not only to fight in cold weather climates but also to survive and remain operational.

The course includes learning how to protect against and treat frostbite, survive in the Arctic wilderness, perform ice rescue operations, and develop cross-country skiing skills. The exercise, which runs from Jan. 4 to Jan. 17, includes troops from the US, UK, Canada, and France.

This training is taking place amid rising tensions between NATO Arctic allies following Trump's recent comments about using military force to annex Greenland. Amidst the media chaos, the Kremlin expressed concern over Trump's rhetoric, emphasizing that Russia views the Arctic as one of its most economically important regions and hopes for peace in the area.

Further trouble in the Northern Sea Route

The Biden administration announced its most extensive sanctions yet on Russia's oil and gas revenues, aiming to cut off the country's primary source of funding for its war efforts in Ukraine. The measures, which were announced on Jan. 10, target oil producers, tankers, intermediaries, traders, and ports, with the goal of crippling Russia's ability to export crude oil. Among the targeted areas are specialized shuttle tankers used in the Arctic and Pacific regions, as well as the Arctic port of Murmansk.

The sanctions are expected to cost Russia billions of dollars per month, however, the new sanctions are only a part of problems the Kremlin has been facing in the Arctic.

To make matters worse, five LNG carriers, which were included in the latest round of EU sanctions against Russia, are currently stranded in remote Arctic waters due to freezing sea ice. The tankers, part of the Yamal LNG project, have been idle for over a week in the Kara Sea and Pechora Sea.

The Western sanctions, aimed at weakening Russia's military and industrial complex, have significantly disrupted the transportation of natural gas from the Russian Arctic.

This has also led shipping through Russia's Northern Sea Route to fall significantly short of the targets set by Vladimir Putin. Despite Putin's goal of reaching 80 million tons of annual shipments by 2024, the actual volume was only 37.9 million tons. Although the volume increased by 1.6 million tons compared to 2023, it is still far below expectations.

Western sanctions have presented the largest challenge for Putin's plans. Most notably, the measures have constrained Russia's ability to build advanced ice-class ships as shipbuilding yards are unable to access crucial western technology. This forced Russia to resorted to hiring aging vessels, which make up the majority of it's "shadow fleet." Most of these ships are not suitable for Arctic conditions.