The Arctic Debrief: Northern Fleet falls short of ambitions, but is a 'considerable threat'

In this edition:

• Northern Fleet falls short of ambitions, but is a 'considerable threat'
• US M10 Booker combat vehicle conducts 'extreme weather testing'
• NATO finalizes locations for Finland's Forward Land Forces

Latest Developments

Northern Fleet falls short of ambitions, but is a 'considerable threat'

Despite failing to meet the Kremlin's set-out goals, Russia's Northern Fleet continues to pose a significant threat to NATO, according to the Norwegian Intelligence Service's latest threat assessment report, FOCUS.

The Russian shipbuilding industry lacks the appropriate resources to successfully complete procurement projects and maintain aging vessels. Not only are western sanctions making it difficult to acquire necessary parts and equipment to work on the ships, but Russia does not have enough shipyards to properly maintain its fleet of Soviet-era warships.

There is no better example of these challenges than the Admiral Kuznetsov, Russia's only aircraft carrier. The carrier, which was launched by the Soviet Union in 1985, has been undergoing constant repairs for a number of years. Most recently the vessel faced another major setback when a construction crane punctured a large hole in the ship's deck.

This issue is further exacerbated due to NATO's high activity in the Arctic in the form of patrols and exercises, which force Russia to send out its aging fleet in a show of force.

Regardless of the aforementioned struggles, Russia has managed to add a number of new vessels to its Northern Fleet, and the navy's submarines continue to pose a significant threat in the Arctic, notes the NIS report.

Russia is expected to bolster its Navy with three new Severodvinsk-class multi-role submarines and three modern frigates armed with hypersonic Tsirkon missiles. The report highlights that the missiles’ extremely high velocity makes them very difficult for air defense systems to intercept.

The NIS also noted that while the war in Ukraine remains Russia's number one priority, it is shifting significant resources to surveil and monitor the Nordic states as the importance of the Arctic region continues to grow.

US M10 Booker combat vehicle conducts 'extreme weather testing'

The M10 Booker combat vehicle was deployed to Fort Greely, Alaska, for extreme cold weather testing. The M10, produced by General Dynamics Land Systems, is the latest combat vehicle to enter service in the U.S. army.

Due to the vehicle's light armor, it is classified as an assault gun. The M10 is set to take on a support role and provide direct covering fire for infantry against fortified positions and light-armored vehicles. The new vehicle was taken along for a series of exercises held across the Arctic to test its ability to operate in -50°C temperature.

The Army received the first batch out of the planned 504 vehicles in 2024. The first M10s have joined the 82nd airborne division. The M10 marks a new doctrine approach for the U.S. Army as it is set to provide infantry units with more mobile firepower.

The vehicle is set to participate in joint-exercises across the Arctic in North America and Europe. The M10 is set to fill the gap left behind by the M551 Sheridan which was retired in 1997.

NATO finalizes locations for Finland's Forward Land Forces

Rovaniemi and Sodankylä were chosen as the bases for NATO's Forward Land Forces (FLF) at the meeting of NATO defense ministers in Brussels.

FLF are troops from allied nations that are stationed in a country during peacetime to conduct training and exercise with national military units. The goal is to increase the soldier's interoperability, improve knowledge, and increase defense capabilities.

The unspoken reason for these forces, which are also stationed in all the Baltic states, is to reinforce NATO's idea of "an attack on one is an attack on all," which acts as a deterrent to Russian aggression against these nations.

The forces are not expected to single-handedly fend off an assault but are instead forward-deployed forces that would aim to secure high-priority objectives that would allow NATO reinforcements to reach a hypothetical front line.

This comes at a time when American support for NATO seems unreliable. Finnish Defence Minister Antti Häkkänen noted that Finland, and the rest of European states, must increase their defense spending and ensure that they can face Russia with their own strength. Although the minister did not raise concerns of a potential isolationist U.S., he noted that the increase in defense spending will allow America to deal with China's growing presence in the Indo-Pacific.