The Arctic Debrief: Chinese Arctic ambitions waning outside of Russia

In this edition:

• Chinese Arctic ambitions waning outside of Russia;
• Norway increases defence budget as local leaders call for increased military presence; and
• Russian Arctic convoy faces obstacles in first trip of 2025

Latest Developments

Chinese Arctic ambitions waning outside of Russia

Most of China’s Arctic investments in Western nations have failed or never moved past the planning phase, according to a new study published by researchers from Harvard University and Trent University. 

Despite concerns over Beijing’s growing presence in the region, Russia is the only country where China has found moderate success.

China began investing in the Arctic in the early 2000s, providing funding or acquiring ownership in projects across the region. However, with a changing geopolitical landscape and growing tensions with the West, Chinese involvement and influence has weakened. The majority of projects—particularly in Greenland, Canada, and the Nordic countries—have stalled due to economic, political, or security-related barriers. 

As an example, only one of eight proposed projects in Greenland has reached completion and China has only a single nickel mining project advancing the Canadian Arctic. This is despite China’s best efforts to become heavily involved in Arctic projects across the West.

Russia is the only country where China’s presence is growing. As Russia grows increasingly isolated from the West, coupled with a growing list of sanctions and a lack of investors, it has become reliant on China. For example, Russia’s Arctic Yamal LNG project would be impossible without Chinese funding and the delivery of crucial tech. 

Chinese companies are also increasingly involved in developing the Russian far north. This includes developing projects that will see the extraction of rare earth minerals, construction of new energy and infrastructure projects, and an increased use of the Northern Sea Route. Many of these projects heavily favour the Chinese government or companies, granting them access to much needed raw materials and energy. 

Public narratives surrounding China’s proposed projects and overall goals for the region have led to a mischaracterization of Chinese influence in the Arctic. However, China’s ambitions in the Arctic remain high, but now shifting priority to growing its presence and influence over Russian territory. 

Norway increases defence budget as local leaders call for increased military presence

Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Støre pledged to increase Norway’s defence spending to 5 percent of GDP, just as the country was about to reach its two percent goal. Støre said that the commitment would be split into two parts: 3.5 percent on military defence and 1.5 percent on defence-related investments.

The “defence-related investments” may include funding for infrastructure and energy security, as well as measures aimed at strengthening the defence industry and protection against hybrid threats and cyber threats, according to Støre. The main reason for increasing the country's defence spending budget was Russia’s increasing aggression towards the West and its ongoing invasion of Ukraine. 

This announcement comes as Norway’s northernmost communities are urging the government to increase military presence on Svalbard. Local leaders and experts emphasized the strategic importance of Svalbard and the need for Norway to assert its presence more visibly.

Svalbard is a chain of islands 700 km north of Norway’s northernmost coast. The unique region is recognized as Norwegian territory, but due to a 1920 treaty, it allows for nationals of other countries, such as Russia and China, to live on the island without a visa. For example, about 400 Russian nationals live on Svalbard with most of them residing in a coal mining town called Barentsburg.

As Russia and China become increasingly involved in the Arctic region, there are growing concerns over whether Norway would be able to defend the archipelago.

The discussion also turned to the reality that Norway must be able to defend the region without relying on an increasingly unpredictable United States. There are also growing concerns about Norway’s claim to Svalbard amidst U.S. President Donald Trump’s remarks about Greenland. 

Russian Arctic convoy faces obstacles in first trip of 2025

Russia has dispatched its first Arctic convoy of the year along the Northern Sea Route (NSR), despite the waters experiencing unusually thick sea ice. The convoy is led by two nuclear-powered icebreakers, the Yamal and Vaigach, which are escorting a liquefied natural gas (LNG) tanker and two cargo vessels.

Satellite maps show dense ice covering much of the Laptev and East Siberian Seas, with some areas covered in ice up to one meter thick. The convoy is headed toward the Bering Strait, as it heads towards its final destination in East Asia.

It was previously predicted that global warming would help increase traffic through the NSR, but—while the usual sea ice is melting due to increased temperatures—large ice chunks from further north are being pushed by strong air currents towards the Siberian coast.

This may serve as a significant obstacle to Russia’s plan to increase the shipping tonnage through the NSR, which is a key goal of Russia’s Arctic strategy. Russia has already failed to reach President Vladimir Putin’s target of 80 million tons of cargo on the route by 2024, with actual shipments reaching just 37.9 million tons.