The Arctic Debrief: Denmark boosts Arctic defence spending following Trump's Greenland remarks

In this edition:

• Denmark boosts Arctic defence spending following Trump's Greenland remarks
• Novatek seeks to negotiate US sanctions as Arctic LNG2 shutters production
• Massive explosion at Russia's Northern Fleet headquarters

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Latest Developments

Denmark boosts Arctic defence spending following Trump's Greenland remark

Denmark announced major defence spending to expand its military capacity in Greenland just hours after Donald Trump's expressing interest in purchasing the Arctic territory.

"For purposes of National Security and Freedom throughout the World, the United States of America feels that the ownership and control of Greenland is an absolute necessity," said Trump in a Dec. 23 social media post. However, the US has had a military presence on Greenland since the Second World War and remains to operate out of the Pituffik Space Base (formerly known as the Thule Air Base).

Greenland's Prime Minister Múte Bourup Egede responded to Trump's comment stating that "Greenland belongs to the people of Greenland," and that "we are not for sale and we will not be for sale." The comments echo the same sentiment conveyed to similar remarks made by Trump in 2019.

Denmark's new military package includes funding for two new inspection ships, two new long-range drones and two extra dog sled teams. The funding would also increase staffing at Arctic Command in Greenland's capital, Nuuk, and upgrade a civilian airport runway to accommodate F-35 fighter jets.

"We have not invested enough in the Arctic for many years, now we are planning a stronger presence," said Danish Defence Minister Troels Lund Poulsen following the announcement of the new defense spending. The Minister added that the timing of the news is an "irony of fate" and not related to Trump's comment.

Greenland is an autonomous region owned by the Danish government, which oversees trade, fiscal policy, and foreign affairs — including the island's defense. The territory has major oil and mineral reserves and serves as a crucial strategic location for NATO due to its location between Europe and North America, as well as its proximity to the Arctic.

Over the past few years, the Nordic country has proven itself to be a close and important ally to the United States, participating in a number of Arctic exercises and signing cooperation agreements which would grant the US access to crucial military infrastructure on Danish territory.

Novatek seeks to negotiate US sanctions as Arctic LNG2 shutters production

In anticipation of Trump assuming presidency on Jan. 20, 2025, Novatek has sent officials to Washington D.C. to negotiate the removal of sanctions placed on the company's liquefied natural gas projects, according to a report by Norwegian news outlet High North News.

Since Russia's invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, the US and its allies have placed heavy sanctions on Novatek's Arctic LNG 2 plant and the Belokamenka shipyard. Additionally, the sanctions have affected Chinese suppliers associated with the plant and a shadow fleet of LNG carriers which Novatek used in an attempt to circumvent sanctions.

As a result of the sanctions, Arctic LNG 2 has seized all production and work on additional production facilities. The project was set to place Russia as one of the largest LNG producers in the world, with estimates placing Russian LNG production at 42%, but instead it is losing billions of dollars in revenue.

A local newspaper reports that the once busy and bustling Belokamenka LNG facility, which employed a peak of 15,000 workers in 2023, now sits empty and only security guards remain.

In an effort to lift these sanctions Novatek officials have arrived in Washington D.C. to convince Trump officials to remove the sanctions. Although officials from the Biden administration stated that Western allies cannot return relations with Russia to status quo as long as it is waging war in Ukraine, Trump may not stand by that conviction.

At the same time EU countries, such as France and Belgium, are implementing policies to comply with the 14th EU sanctions package aimed at further restricting Russian LNG transshipment from its Arctic plants.

Russian ships would deliver gas to a European port and use their infrastructure to deliver the gas to another port, where a ship would load the gas and deliver it to another part of the world. This method accounts for 20% of Russia's LNG production and once fully implemented will further cripple the warring nation's ability to sell its LNG and thereby fund its war in Ukraine.

Massive explosion at Russia's Northern Fleet headquarters

A series of large explosions were felt throughout Severomorsk, Murmansk Oblast, on the evening of Dec. 19, 2024. Although the government has not reported on what caused the explosion or its aftermath, it took place within the territory of the Northern Fleet Headquarters, according to local sources.

The Northern Fleet operates aircraft, naval vessels and troop formations that make up Russia's main Arctic forces. The fleet regularly partakes in Arctic patrols and military exercises along Russia's northern coast. A number of Russian nuclear submarines are hosted at this base.

Nearby airfield and oil refineries have previously been targeted by Ukrainian drones, but the Russian government has yet to make any comments on the explosion. Open-source information shows that the explosions took place at a potential munitions depot. However, no concrete details have been revealed.